All-time high: Gold price breaks through USD 3,000 for the first time

The current rise is largely driven by increasing geopolitical tensions and, in particular, the escalating global trade war. US President Donald Trump has shaken the global markets in recent weeks with aggressive protectionist measures. New punitive tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum were imposed on Europe, to which the European Union promptly responded with its own punitive tariffs on American goods. Most recently, Trump even threatened punitive tariffs of up to 200% on European wines and spirits - an unprecedented escalation that has thrown the market into great turmoil.

This political dynamic is causing enormous uncertainty for companies and investors, as protectionist measures disrupt global supply chains, impair trade flows and ultimately lead to higher prices. Historically, investors respond to such periods of uncertainty and instability by fleeing to safe-haven investments - and gold has traditionally been one of the strongest and most popular havens.

Another decisive factor for the price increase is the current dramatic rise in national debt in many industrialized countries, which is particularly visible in Europe. This year alone, Germany is planning new borrowing of EUR 900 billion, while the European Union is making an additional EUR 800 billion available for defense spending. This enormous expansion of the money supply is causing considerable concern among experts and investors about future inflation.
The expansive monetary policy - combined with historically low or even negative interest rates - is eroding the value of money. Investors who want to protect the real value of their assets are therefore increasingly favoring safe tangible assets and precious metals. In particular, they prefer gold, which is traditionally regarded as the best protection against inflation and currency risks. The glut of money and the phase of low interest rates are massively increasing interest in gold, as - unlike savings investments or bonds - it retains or even increases its value in the long term.

In addition to economic and political causes, the psychology of the markets also plays a decisive role. Crossing the 3,000 dollar mark has an enormous symbolic character: it signals stability, strength and continuity to the markets. Historically, gold has proven time and again that it is a safe investment for investors in times of economic or political instability. Crossing this psychologically extremely important and relevant mark further reinforces this confidence.

In a world characterized by uncertainty and turbulence, gold offers something that many other forms of investment cannot guarantee: Long-term stability of value. Investors trust gold as a long-term security, which in turn drives demand further and leads to an upward spiral.

The impact on other markets is already clear. Equity markets have recently come under severe pressure - the S&P 500 index has already lost over 10% since its recent peak. This capital outflow from risky assets into gold could intensify further if geopolitical and economic uncertainty persists. Investors are reducing their positions in equities and investing more in gold, which is driving the price up further.

Technical analysts and banks have already issued significantly higher price targets for gold. The major Australian bank Macquarie is forecasting a price of up to USD 3,500 per troy ounce in the short term, while BNP Paribas expects gold to remain above USD 3,000 on a sustained basis. Technically speaking, there is no longer any historical resistance above the USD 3,000 mark, which means that further dynamic increases are possible in the short term.

The Fed's interest rate policy is also likely to be decisive for future price trends. The market currently expects further interest rate cuts of around 0.7 percentage points over the course of 2025. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive, as the opportunity costs of holding it fall. Should the Fed actually make or announce interest rate cuts, this would be another strong signal that would support the gold price in the long term.

In view of the current situation, investors should critically review their portfolios and possibly increase the proportion of gold. Diversification in gold reduces risks and offers long-term stability in uncertain times. However, investors should also be prepared for short-term volatility, as the gold market can often experience sharp short-term fluctuations during rapid market movements.

The historic breakthrough above the USD 3,000 mark on the gold market is not only a milestone, but also a clear signal of increasing economic and political uncertainty globally. In view of escalating trade conflicts, rising government debt and monetary policy expansion, gold is likely to remain attractive in the future. Investors should therefore continue to monitor market developments closely and align their strategies with this long-term trend in order to secure wealth and purchasing power in the long term.