Gold Price News: US data and crises drive the market into the unknown

On October 4, 2024, the gold price remained relatively stable at USD 2,657 per troy ounce. A slight downward trend was observed during the afternoon. However, the market is waiting for the publication of US labor market data. This could provide the decisive impetus for the rest of the day. If the report is weaker than expected, speculation of an interest rate cut could rise, making gold more attractive as an inflation-protected investment. The resistance at USD 2,685 remains in focus – a breakthrough of this mark could quickly push the price to the psychologically important mark of USD 2,700.

Today's movements are characterized by high investor expectations, as labor market data is often used as an important indicator for the decisions of the Federal Reserve. Weak labor market data could indicate that the US economy is losing momentum, which would increase the likelihood of the Fed lowering interest rates.

Geopolitical tensions continue to be a strong driver for the gold markets. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has increased uncertainty in global markets. Investors are increasingly flocking to safe havens such as gold to hedge against rising volatility and potential market disruptions. Israel and Iran are currently the focus of global uncertainty after several military confrontations in recent days. The possibility of escalation is increasing demand for gold as investors seek to avoid risk.

In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a threat to the stability of the European economy. Any escalation of the situation could affect commodity markets and further increase the attractiveness of gold. Historically, geopolitical tensions tend to drive the price of gold as investors seek safe-haven assets to protect themselves from market volatility.

Today, not only the geopolitical factors discussed are in the foreground, but also macroeconomic developments. US labor market data is a key factor for the future interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve. If the labor market report is weaker than expected, this could increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut, which would further boost the attractiveness of gold. A rate cut would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, since it pays no interest.

Furthermore, inflation remains a key aspect. Although inflation rates in the US have fallen in recent months, fears of a new inflation remain. Should inflation rise again, this would increase the demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Central banks around the world have increased their gold reserves in recent months to protect themselves against market uncertainty. This is a long-term trend that continues to support the gold price.

The gold market faces a crucial decision today. The combination of geopolitical crises, the expected US labor market data and speculation about possible interest rate cuts could move the market sharply. If the resistance at $2,685 is broken, prices could quickly rise to $2,700. In case of weak US data and an escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East or Ukraine, the gold price could rise even further.

The next few hours will be crucial, as the reaction to the labor market data could set the trend for the coming weeks. Investors should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve, as these are key drivers for the future gold price development.