Gold Price News: Breakthrough from the sideways trend looms

The price of gold has risen significantly today compared to the last few days and weeks to USD 2,691.66 per troy ounce. Although the re-election of Donald Trump and the associated strengthening of the US dollar to an eight-year high have so far put pressure on the gold price, geopolitical tensions now appear to be outweighing this. Current events such as the change of power in Syria and Israel's escalating military activities are increasing uncertainty and boosting demand for the precious metal as a safe investment.

The market is now indicating an initial reaction to the developments in the Middle East, while the strength of the dollar is slowing the upward trend, but obviously cannot stop it. It appears that the gold price is thus breaking its recent sideways movement and reflecting the growing significance of geopolitical risks for the markets.

A new political era is beginning after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Mohammed al-Bashir, previously head of government of the rebel stronghold of Idlib, has been appointed caretaker prime minister of the Syrian transitional government. His term of office is set to last until March 2025. Al-Bashir, 41 years old, was previously Minister of Development and Humanitarian Affairs in the so-called Salvation Government, which was established in 2017 by the Islamist militia Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Under his administration, Idlib has undergone remarkable changes in recent years. Instead of jihadist banners, the cityscape is characterized by newly opened shopping centers and an expansion of public services. His appointment could indicate a continuation of this pragmatic approach. However, it remains uncertain whether al-Bashir will actually be able to stabilize and improve conditions throughout the country. The challenges of a broken state and the distribution of power between different factions and interests are enormous.

Political change in Syria is being closely monitored internationally. Uncertainties about the country's future direction and its relationship with the region, including Israel and the Gulf states, could have long-term implications for geopolitical stability.

Following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has massively expanded its military activities in Syria. Today, the Israeli military reported increased airstrikes on more than 350 targets, which it claims include chemical weapons depots and strategic facilities. These operations are intended to prevent dangerous weapons from falling into the hands of extremist groups. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attacks as a necessary defensive measure and emphasized that the troops were temporarily stationed in the demilitarized buffer zone.

However, observers are skeptical. Experts suspect that Israel is using the instability in Syria to strengthen its strategic position in the region and disrupt Iranian supply lines for Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has also become known that Israel's defence minister wants to establish a “weapons-free defence zone” in southern Syria, which has been sharply criticized by the United Nations and several neighbouring states.

Reactions to Israel's actions are mixed. While Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia condemn the action and denounce a breach of international law, the US government urges Israel to exercise restraint. Nevertheless, Washington emphasizes Israel's right to self-defense. The developments raise questions about the future stability of Syria and the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

Following the change of power in Syria and the appointment of Mohammed al-Bashir as caretaker Prime Minister of the transitional government, Western states are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen today announced talks on Syria with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The aim would be to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria and protect the rights of ethnic and religious minorities. The EU also hopes that more refugees from Syria will be able to return home.

In a telephone conversation with Erdogan, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also emphasized the importance of international cooperation in order to stabilize Syria. Both agreed that the chance of a secure future for all Syrians must be seized. At the same time, they called for Syria's sovereignty to be respected while Western and regional partners support the transition.

These diplomatic efforts illustrate the international interest in a stable Syria. However, the future distribution of power remains uncertain as the new government still faces the challenge of uniting a country with deep wounds and rival factions.

The wage dispute between Volkswagen and IG Metall continues to escalate. According to the union, 102,600 employees across Germany took part in the warning strikes, which took place at nine Group sites and subsidiaries. The protests began on Monday morning and continued into the night shifts. Volkswagen itself, however, only reported 55,000 strikers, as the company only records officially deregistered employees.

IG Metall described the work stoppages as a “historic moment”, which it “would have liked to have avoided”. The union's chief negotiator, Thorsten Gröger, criticized the unprecedented actions of the company, which has terminated existing collective agreements. The background to this are planned job cuts, site closures and wage cuts, which Volkswagen justifies with high costs at the production site in Germany.

Despite progress in the fourth round of negotiations, serious differences remain. While the Group is pushing for cost reductions, the trade union and works council are fighting to preserve jobs and sites. The next round of negotiations is eagerly awaited, as the peace obligation expires at the end of November 2024 and further strikes cannot be ruled out.

Precious metals trading house Heraeus is forecasting another record year for the gold price in 2025. Henrik Marx, Head of Precious Metals Trading, sees the price rising to up to USD 2,950 per troy ounce in the coming months. This positive assessment is based on several factors, including the expected easing of interest rate policy by central banks, a potential weakening of the US dollar and continued strong demand from Asia.

Central banks have already bought record amounts of gold this year, which is supporting the market. Even if purchases could be somewhat lower next year, demand remains high. In China and India in particular, the two largest markets for physical gold, demand could increase further due to economic stimuli.

In addition to macroeconomic drivers, geopolitical uncertainties remain an important factor for the gold price. Conflicts such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as the ongoing tensions between the USA and China could further increase the attractiveness of the precious metal as a safe investment. Heraeus sees this as the basis for another strong year on the gold market.

The long-term shift of gold reserves from Western financial centers such as New York and London to the East is continuing. Experts see this as a creeping change in global financial power, with the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in particular strengthening their position. Countries such as China, India and Russia have invested massively in building up their gold reserves in recent years.

An analysis shows that almost 80% of global gold reserves are now stored outside the traditional Western financial centers. This not only reflects a growing mistrust of Western financial systems, but also the efforts of many countries to strengthen their economic and political independence.

China is pursuing a particularly ambitious strategy: domestic production remains entirely in the country and the country also makes extensive purchases via third countries. Russia has also made gold a key resource for its economy in order to circumvent Western sanctions and secure access to necessary imports.

This shift points to a fundamental reorganization of the global financial markets. While the West continues to hold the largest gold reserves, the emerging economies of the East are continuously expanding their influence.

Today's gold price of USD 2,691.66 per troy ounce indicates a possible departure from the previous sideways movement. Over the past few days, the market had been trading in a narrow range between USD 2,650 and USD 2,670 before a cautious upward trend became apparent. Nevertheless, the movement remains limited as the strong US dollar continues to hold back the gold price.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a slight improvement and is just above the 55 mark, indicating a moderate upward movement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching the zero line, but is not yet giving a clear buy signal. The support level remains stable at USD 2,650, while the next resistance at USD 2,700 needs to be overcome to confirm a stronger upward trend.

The current movements reflect the uncertainties of market participants who are weighing up geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic influences. New fundamental impulses could be decisive in moving the gold price out of its cautious momentum and into a stronger direction.

At USD 2,691.66 per troy ounce, the price of gold is showing the first signs of a cautious upward movement, but remains caught in a field of conflicting influences. While the geopolitical uncertainties caused by the change of power in Syria and Israel's escalating military activities are supporting demand for gold as a safe haven investment, the continued strength of the US dollar following Trump's re-election continues to have a dampening effect.

The coming days could be decisive for the further development of the gold price. Geopolitical factors such as reactions to Israel's actions in Syria or new economic policy announcements from the US could set the market in motion. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy remains a key influencing factor. Speculation about possible easing in the coming year could increase the attractiveness of gold once again.

Analysts are also monitoring demand from Asia, particularly China and India, which traditionally picks up towards the end of the year. If this momentum continues, the gold price could break through the USD 2,700 mark and move higher. Nevertheless, the situation remains fragile, as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continue to work in opposite directions.