Gold Price News: Moderate movement to USD 2,650 in the context of Ukraine desertions and Middle East ceasefire

The price of gold stood at USD 2,650 per troy ounce on November 29, 2024, a slight increase compared to the previous day. This development underlines the continued importance of gold as a safe investment in times of global uncertainty. The humanitarian and economic crisis in Ukraine in particular, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia, are driving investors to place greater bets on the precious metal. The consolidated movement indicates that investors are weighing up short-term market fluctuations, while demand remains stable due to uncertainties about economic and political developments.

At the weekend, the war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating impact on the civilian population and the military situation in the country. Russian attacks are targeting critical infrastructure, destroying power and heating grids, disrupting water supplies and plunging entire cities into darkness and cold. The Ukrainian population is facing a harsh winter in which they are using generators, wood pellets and jerry cans to try and secure the bare necessities to survive. Hundreds of thousands of people are struggling in extreme conditions as the humanitarian situation becomes increasingly desperate.

On a military level, the conflict is escalating with international involvement. North Korean soldiers are supporting the Russian armed forces. According to today's reports, a high-ranking general was injured in a Ukrainian missile attack. These developments illustrate the extent to which the war has become a global conflict that extends far beyond the region.

The Ukrainian armed forces are also facing another challenge: high desertion rates. Tens of thousands of soldiers have left their positions, weakening the lines of defense and accelerating territorial losses. The strain of the war and the inadequate equipment of the troops are leading to increasing exhaustion of the defense forces. In combination with the massive Russian attacks, this creates a critical situation that further endangers the stability of the country.

The situation in north-western Syria is escalating dramatically after the Islamist militia Hajat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took over 50 towns and villages in the Aleppo and Idlib regions in a large-scale offensive. According to observers, this is the heaviest fighting between rebels and government troops in years. The offensive has forced tens of thousands of people to flee; many of them are without access to sufficient humanitarian aid. The United Nations reports an increasingly tense situation, with children in particular suffering from serious injuries caused by blast fragments.

In response to the offensive, the Syrian government has launched massive counter-attacks. With the support of Russian fighter jets, more than 60 targets were attacked in the affected areas. The Syrian army has also sent reinforcements to Aleppo to push back the rebels and prevent the fighting from spreading further. Despite the intensive counter-offensive, activists report numerous civilian casualties, including four students who died in an attack on a university campus in Aleppo.

The escalation highlights the ongoing instability in the region, which continues to be a theater of international influence. While Russia is increasing its support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the situation for the civilian population is deteriorating rapidly. The developments show once again that the conflict in Syria is far from finding a solution.

The situation in the Middle East remains tense, although a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has been in place for several days. While both sides are officially adhering to the agreement, there are repeated reports of incidents that call the stability of the agreement into question.

Hezbollah celebrated the ceasefire as a “great victory”. Its leader Naim Kassem announced in a speech that the militia had successfully prevented Israel from crushing the resistance. Such statements are intended to strengthen their own supporters and paint the picture of an undefeated organization. Nevertheless, the question remains as to how sustainable this “victory” is, as Israel continues to carry out airstrikes on supposed Hezbollah targets in the south of Lebanon. Most recently, a truck with a rocket launcher was bombed, which the Israeli military presented as a preventive measure.

In the Gaza Strip, however, the picture is different. Israel is continuing its attacks against Hamas, with at least 40 Palestinians killed last night alone. Tanks and air strikes continue to dominate the region, exacerbating the humanitarian situation. Similar violence can also be observed in the West Bank, where an armed attack on an Israeli bus left several people injured. At the same time, settler violence against Palestinians in the region is on the rise, further fueling tensions.

Despite the ceasefire in Lebanon, the conflict between Israel and its opponents in the region appears to be a long way from a long-term solution. The various fronts illustrate the complexity of the situation, in which neither party seems willing to address the root causes of the conflict.

Russia is facing major challenges, both economic and geopolitical. The rouble has continued to lose value, reaching a new low of 113 roubles per US dollar. This devaluation continues to drive inflation, which according to independent experts is around 18 to 20 percent. Everyday products such as potatoes and butter have seen price increases of 60 and 30 percentage points respectively since the beginning of the year. Despite a key interest rate of 21 percent, which could rise to 23 percent, inflation remains difficult to control. President Vladimir Putin tried to convey calm during an appearance in Astana, but the pressure on the Russian population and economy is increasing.

To compensate for military losses, Russia is offering indebted men a debt cut if they sign up for military service. This measure highlights the Russian army's personnel shortages. At the same time, Moscow is emphasizing its financial resilience through its large national gold reserves, which are intended to serve as a buffer against economic problems.

There is also unrest at international level. The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) has warned of possible Russian provocations on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago that is considered a potential center of conflict due to Russian mining settlements. This strategy could be aimed at testing solidarity within NATO. In addition, reports of acts of sabotage in Europe attributed to Moscow are making the rounds.

In Ukraine, Russian airstrikes on civilian and military targets are intensifying. Drone attacks on Kiev and other cities such as Odessa cause severe damage to infrastructure, while retaliatory measures by Ukraine hit Russian positions in the border regions. Tensions on the frontline remain high; the humanitarian costs of the conflict are enormous.

In a rare public comment, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel commented on the situation. She emphasized that Russia must not win this war and called for long-term diplomatic solutions. At the same time, she emphasized the need to continue to provide Ukraine with comprehensive support. Her words reflect the balancing act that many European states are trying to master between military aid and a possible peace solution.

Following Donald Trump's election victory, the political climate in the USA is changing noticeably. A new survey shows that the perception of electoral fraud and economic problems among his voters has greatly diminished. Before the election, 87% of Trump voters thought voter fraud was a serious problem; after the election, this figure fell to 36%. At the same time, confidence in the economy increased: before the election, only 8% of Trump voters had a positive view of the economic situation; now the figure is 28%. These developments underline the strong influence of Trump's election victory on public opinion.

However, the polarization between Trump and Harris voters remains. While 64% of Trump voters are “very optimistic” about the future government, the opposite is true for supporters of the defeated Kamala Harris: 65% are “very pessimistic”. A sensitive issue remains the possible pardon of those accused of storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021, which is rejected by a majority of voters - however, 53% of Trump voters support this measure.

At the same time, the current US administration under outgoing President Joe Biden is sending a clear signal of support for Ukraine. In view of the escalating Russian attacks, Biden has announced additional military aid amounting to 725 million US dollars. This includes advanced weapons systems, ammunition and defense technologies specifically tailored to the current needs of the Ukrainian armed forces.

The continued US support demonstrates the strategic priority given to Ukraine in the geopolitical context. The new aid packages illustrate the efforts to stabilize the country at a crucial stage of the conflict before Trump takes office and possibly adopts a different stance towards the war. The political course set in the coming months will therefore be decisive - both for Ukraine and for the international order.

The gold price rose slightly to USD 2,650 per troy ounce on 29 November 2024, indicating stabilization after the sideways movements of recent days. From a technical perspective, gold successfully defended an important support level at USD 2,640, confirming a short-term upward trend. The next resistance level is USD 2,670, which could be tested in the coming trading days if demand remains strong.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in neutral territory with a value of 55, which indicates balanced market sentiment. At the same time, the gold price remains above the 50-day moving average, which implies a further bullish signal supported by sustained buyer momentum. Volume analyses also show that buying activity increases during price setbacks, which indicates strong demand at lower price levels.

Geopolitical uncertainties - particularly in the Middle East, Ukraine and the ongoing tensions between Russia and NATO - continue to support the gold price. In addition, inflation concerns and the weak performance of the US dollar are contributing to the appeal of the precious metal. Market observers assume that these fundamental factors will continue to boost gold and should limit short-term declines.

However, if gold falls below USD 2,640, this could lead to a consolidation towards USD 2,620. Conversely, a break above USD 2,670 per troy ounce opens up the potential for a move towards the November high of USD 2,685. Investors remain cautiously optimistic at this stage, with the overall technical picture signaling a stable to slightly positive trend for the time being.

The outlook for the gold price remains characterized by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Having stabilized at USD 2,650 per troy ounce, gold remains a preferred form of investment for investors seeking protection against risks. The fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and the escalating conflicts in Ukraine - coupled with the uncertain economic situation in Russia - are continuing to drive demand for safe investments. Increasing purchases by central banks and the ongoing de-dollarization are also strengthening the long-term upward trend on the gold market. At the same time, the gold price remains susceptible to short-term setbacks, which is particularly noticeable in situations such as an easing of the global situation or a stronger US dollar. Nevertheless, the fundamental drivers remain intact and the target of USD 3,000 per troy ounce in the coming years still appears achievable, especially if geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties persist. Investors should view short-term fluctuations as part of a larger trend and align their strategy accordingly.