Gold Price News: Sideways movement at USD 2,637 - Geopolitical conflicts influence the markets

Today, November 28, 2024, the gold price remains unchanged at USD 2,637 per troy ounce. This sideways movement reflects the current market uncertainty. Despite numerous geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, which have often led to strong fluctuations in the past, the markets are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Analysts attribute the stability of the gold price to various factors. On the one hand, there are no new developments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, which is traditionally a strong influencing factor. On the other hand, short-term escalations in the Middle East and Ukraine have eased, but without signaling a clear easing of tensions. This uncertainty prevents investors from building up larger positions or speculating on falling prices.

The recent ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah is being presented as a great success by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel was able to force Hezbollah onto the defensive, largely neutralize Hamas in the Gaza Strip and at least temporarily put Iran in its place. However, the apparent military successes do not hide the fact that Israel is still trapped in “war mode”.

Netanyahu's speech on the occasion of the ceasefire reflects this situation. Instead of peace or long-term stability, the prime minister spoke of a “breathing space” that should be used to prepare for future conflicts. Israel wants to allow its troops to recover and renew its military resources in order to be able to wage new battles. This attitude shows that the current ceasefire is little more than a tactical pause without any real prospect of a lasting solution.

The geopolitical instability in the Middle East therefore remains a critical factor for the gold price. Renewed tensions would therefore have a renewed impact on the gold price.

The war in Ukraine continues to intensify. Russian attacks with new medium-range missiles and drones have caused massive damage to the energy infrastructure in recent days. Over a million people are currently without electricity or access to clean water. The humanitarian situation is worsening dramatically, particularly in cities such as Odessa, Kiev and Lviv.

The EU is responding by announcing increased defense spending. Sanctions against Russia are also being examined - in particular against the so-called “shadow fleet”, which Moscow uses to circumvent oil embargoes. North Korea's direct involvement in the war and the supply of weapons to Russia mark a new phase in the conflict, which has also been strongly condemned in the European Parliament.

These developments show that the war is by no means stagnating, but is gaining new momentum. For the gold price, this continues to mean an area of tension between geopolitical uncertainty and possible market reactions to the long-term economic consequences of the crisis.

Russia's reactions to the war in Ukraine include both military and economic strategies.While the EU is examining new sanctions against the Russian “shadow fleet”, Moscow is intensifying the development and deployment of new weapons systems.Hypersonic missiles such as the Oreshnik and the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile symbolize the technological race.

These developments continue to weigh on the rouble, which has once again lost value against the US dollar. The Russian central bank is trying to curb inflation with high key interest rates of 21%, but the sanctions and the switch to a war economy are clearly leaving their mark.

For the gold market, this means that Russia could possibly sell its gold reserves to raise foreign currency.Such sales could weigh on the market in the short term, while geopolitical tensions continue to support the price. These developments continue to weigh on the rouble, which has once again lost value against the US dollar.

During a state visit by Vladimir Putin to Kazakhstan, the Ukrainian flag was briefly displayed on a public screen in Astana. Kazakh authorities are investigating suspected foreign hackers who are being held responsible for the incident.

This incident underscores the tensions between Russia and its neighboring countries, which are increasingly distancing themselves from Moscow's influence. While such symbolic actions have no direct impact on the gold price, they do show the fragility of the geopolitical situation, which indirectly influences the market.

The discovery of a huge gold deposit in the central Chinese province of Hunan has caused a worldwide sensation. With an estimated 1,000 tons of gold in over 40 newly discovered veins, this discovery could further strengthen China's position as the world's leading gold producer. The value of the newly discovered reserves amounts to over 83 billion US dollars.

China, which already supplies around ten percent of the world's gold production, could further reduce its dependence on imports as a result of this discovery. The Chinese gold reserve could increase by almost 45% if the deposit is fully developed.

The gold price has been moving sideways for days and is currently trading at USD 2,637 per troy ounce. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the ceasefire in the Middle East and the escalation in Ukraine, the market remains trapped in a narrow range between USD 2,600 and USD 2,670.

Technical indicators show a neutral stance of the market: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below 50, indicating a lack of buying or selling pressure. The 20-day moving average is also flat, indicating little momentum. This lack of movement is underpinned by the low trading volume, which signals that market participants are waiting for decisive impulses.

Support at USD 2,600 remains important. A break could push the price down to the next significant level of USD 2,550. Conversely, a rise above the USD 2,670 mark could trigger a short-term rally towards USD 2,700.

In the short term, the market remains vulnerable due to the given geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah offers no long-term stability, while the escalating attacks in Ukraine continue to focus attention on the war. China's recent gold discovery could influence the global market in the medium term if the mined gold enters the market.

Macroeconomically, attention is turning to the US: the Fed remains neutral for now, but new economic data could drive speculation about possible rate cuts. If inflation slows further, this could weaken the dollar and support the gold price.

In the long term, the outlook for gold remains stable to positive. Central bank purchases - particularly from emerging markets - and the de-dollarization are strengthening strategic demand. Analysts expect prices to remain close to the USD 3,000 mark until mid-2025, which will also be supported by geopolitical risks and the ongoing uncertainty on the commodity markets.