Gold Price News: Stabilization at USD 2,629 amid tension between the Middle East and Ukraine

At USD 2,629 per troy ounce, the gold price today shows little change compared to the previous day. Despite the recent geopolitical tensions, which are characterized in particular by the escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the gold price remains relatively stable. Experts attribute this development to a temporary consolidation phase, as the market has calmed down after the recent downward movement.

Despite the stability, upcoming macroeconomic data and further developments in the conflict regions could influence the gold price in the short term. In particular, the markets are keeping a close eye on signals from the Federal Reserve, whose decisions on interest rate policy could play a key role in the future behavior of the gold market.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his security cabinet have approved a ceasefire with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. The proposal, which is being discussed in his cabinet, could end the conflict that has been going on for over a year. However, Netanyahu emphasized that Israel would respond to any violation of this agreement with the utmost severity.

The development comes after massive Israeli airstrikes which, according to Netanyahu, have significantly decimated Hezbollah's rocket stockpile and strategic tunnel systems. The aim of the ceasefire is to permanently push the Lebanese Shia militia back behind the Litani River, as stipulated in UN Resolution 1701.

International players such as the USA and France have played a key role in mediating, while Hezbollah and Iran have not yet commented on the proposals. Implementation of the ceasefire could enable tens of thousands of internally displaced persons to return to their homes.

In view of Donald Trump's imminent return to the White House and his possible reduction of US support for Ukraine, the discussion about greater military autonomy is growing in Europe. The head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, described this as “Europe's hour”.

Leading military analyst Carlo Masala raised the possibility that a “coalition of the willing” could deploy European ground troops if US support is drastically reduced. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius was cautious about this and emphasized that German troops were not currently earmarked for such a mission.

The coming months could represent a decisive phase for military support for Ukraine, especially as NATO is increasingly investing in the country's arms production.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to escalate the military situation in Ukraine. Reports of the deployment of 50,000 soldiers in the Kursk region, including North Korean and Yemeni fighters, underline the Kremlin's escalation strategy. The aim is apparently to bring as many territories as possible under Russian control before Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025.

The recent deployment of the experimental intercontinental ballistic missile “RS-26 Rubezh”, which was used to attack the city of Dnipro, is particularly worrying. This attack is perceived internationally as a threatening gesture in order to conduct future negotiations from a position of strength.

At the same time, Russia is intensifying its attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure with the aim of destabilizing the country during the winter months. Analysts see this as an attempt to force Ukraine into a compromise solution, which could include a territorial division along the current front lines.

Donald Trump's imminent return to the White House has significant implications in both Russia and Ukraine. While Kiev is hoping for increased support from European allies, Moscow is trying to achieve a stronger negotiating position through military offensives.

Trump's election promise to end the war “within a day” could increase the pressure on both sides. Experts see the danger that this could lead to a permanent split in Ukraine, which would take the current front lines as the basis for a peace treaty.

The international community - including NATO and the European Union - faces the challenge of preventing an escalation while continuing to support Ukraine militarily and economically.

Current technical indicators show that the gold price is currently in a consolidation phase.Resistance at USD 2,645 remains in place, while support at USD 2,615 forms a solid base.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to neutral market sentiment with a value just above 50.

Should the gold price exceed the USD 2,645 mark, a short-term rise to USD 2,670 could follow.Conversely, a fall below the support level of USD 2,615 could trigger a decline to USD 2,580. However, the market remains bullish in view of the ongoing uncertainties on the global markets.

The outlook for the gold market remains volatile due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. While a de-escalation in the Middle East could ease the pressure on the gold price in the short term, the situation in Ukraine remains a key driver.

Upcoming economic data from the US, including the minutes of the most recent Fed meeting and consumer spending, could provide further indications of future interest rate policy. A restrictive stance by the Fed could weigh on the gold price, while a dovish turnaround could strengthen the precious metal once again.